LONGSHOT LEDGER
Circa Survivor · 2026 · Private Updated Wed, Oct 28 · 10:31 AM PT
Week 8 · Locks Saturday, Oct 31

The entries are gone. The scorecard isn't.

One team to win outright each week, each team usable once, ties lose. A 25,017-entry, $25,017,000 winner-take-most pool — and a model that published its season targets before kickoff. This page is the running scoreboard of how those predictions hold up.

0 / 5
Our entries alive
1,277
of 24,999 field entries still alive
$25.0M
Prize pool
2%
Chance of a quiet season — massacre weeks are coming

This week

Week 8 — picks shown before Saturday's lock. Spectators only, play nice.

The field walks into a crowded trade

About 50% of the field is projected on the Bengals at home against the Titans, 84% favorites. That's a strong pick with a very crowded exit.

Our 0 entries split across 0 doors: .

Pre-registered prediction №8: 49.9% of the field picks the Bengals this week. Graded the moment Circa publishes the official Week 8 pick report.

Where the field is going

Model-projected share of all 25,017 entries, week 8
Our picks
Rest of the field
CIN
49.9%
JAX
14.7%
NE
11.6%
DAL
6.6%
LA
6.2%
WAS
5.7%
GB
1.8%

Our entries

Four run by the model. One decided by the group chat — same scoreboard, no mercy.
DOC BROWN 1
OUT
Week pick
—
Teams burned: DET, TB
DOC BROWN 2
OUT
Week pick
—
Teams burned: JAX, BAL
DOC BROWN 3
OUT
Week pick
—
Teams burned: JAX, TB
DOC BROWN 4
OUT
Week pick
—
Teams burned: PHI, KC, SF, BAL, DAL
MCMAHON & RODGERS
OUTGROUP-DECIDED
Week pick
—
Teams burned: PIT, SF, DET, SEA, HOU, IND

Season outlook

What the simulator sees from here — thousands of full-season runs, refreshed three times a week.
How this likely ends
~346 entries
out of 25,017 are expected to split the pot when the music stops. That's the game: outlast 24,671 strangers.
Model average across simulated seasons; the swing is enormous by design.

Danger weeks, called in advance

Where the model says the field gets hurt — judge us on these in December
THANKSGIVING
Short menu, forced hands. A restricted holiday slate with everyone's best teams already spent; the model has 30% of the field massing on the Cowboys. First of two holiday choke points.
CHRISTMAS
The season's biggest crash risk. By Christmas the menus are thin — 48% of the field funnels onto the Bears, and the model gives that favorite a 36% chance of losing. A coin flip carrying a huge slice of the pool.

The machine's record

The scorecard we asked to be judged on — four targets, pre-registered before leg 1, graded all season even after our entries die.
Crowd prediction error
1.52%
Target: ≤ 2.65% · 6 weeks graded. On the three most-picked teams: 11.0 pts avg. miss (model's norm ~11)
Our survival vs the field
+6.6 pp
Ours 71%, field 64% over 6 weeks — target: beat the field
Danger weeks called
2 flagged
Week 5, Thanksgiving & Christmas — called before kickoff
Operations
100%
Every snapshot on time, zero missed locks since go-live