LONGSHOT LEDGER
Circa Survivor · 2026 · Private Updated Fri, Sep 25 · 3:05 PM PT
Week 3 · Locks Saturday, Sep 26

Week 3: 2 of 5 entries still standing.

One team to win outright each week, each team usable once, ties lose. A 25,017-entry, $25,017,000 winner-take-most pool — and a model that published its season targets before kickoff. This page is the running scoreboard of how those predictions hold up.

2 / 5
Our entries alive
8,610
of 24,999 field entries still alive
$25.0M
Prize pool
0%
Chance of a quiet season — massacre weeks are coming

This week

Week 3 — picks shown before Saturday's lock. Spectators only, play nice.

The field walks into a crowded trade

About 41% of the field is projected on the Chiefs on the road at the Dolphins, 82% favorites. That's a strong pick with a very crowded exit.

Our two entries split across two doors: 49ers, Saints.

Pre-registered prediction №3: 41.4% of the field picks the Chiefs this week. Graded the moment Circa publishes the official Week 3 pick report.

Where the field is going

Model-projected share of all 25,017 entries, week 3
Our picks
Rest of the field
KC
41.4%
DET
14.2%
SF
OURS
7.8%
BUF
7.4%
NO
OURS
6.4%
SEA
5.5%
NYG
3.0%

Our entries

Four run by the model. One decided by the group chat — same scoreboard, no mercy.
DOC BROWN 1
OUT
Week pick
—
Teams burned: DET, TB
DOC BROWN 2
OUT
Week pick
—
Teams burned: JAX, BAL
DOC BROWN 3
OUT
Week pick
—
Teams burned: JAX, TB
DOC BROWN 4
LIVE
Week pick
SF · 79% to win
Teams burned: PHI, KC
MCMAHON & RODGERS
LIVEGROUP-DECIDED
Week pick
NO · vote closes Sat
Model suggests NO — the group has the wheel

Season outlook

What the simulator sees from here — thousands of full-season runs, refreshed three times a week.
How this likely ends
~8 entries
out of 25,017 are expected to split the pot when the music stops. That's the game: outlast 25,009 strangers.
Model average across simulated seasons; the swing is enormous by design.

Danger weeks, called in advance

Where the model says the field gets hurt — judge us on these in December
WEEK 5
The Patriots trap. The model projects 43% of the surviving field onto one team — with a 24% chance that team loses. That's how thousands of entries die in one afternoon.
THANKSGIVING
Short menu, forced hands. A restricted holiday slate with everyone's best teams already spent; the model has 38% of the field massing on the Rams. First of two holiday choke points.
CHRISTMAS
The season's biggest crash risk. By Christmas the menus are thin — 73% of the field funnels onto the Bears, and the model gives that favorite a 34% chance of losing. A coin flip carrying a huge slice of the pool.

The machine's record

The scorecard we asked to be judged on — four targets, pre-registered before leg 1, graded all season even after our entries die.
Crowd prediction error
1.18%
Target: ≤ 2.65% · 2 weeks graded. On the three most-picked teams: 7.1 pts avg. miss (model's norm ~11)
Our survival vs the field
+9.0 pp
Ours 70%, field 61% over 2 weeks — target: beat the field
Danger weeks called
3 flagged
Week 5, Thanksgiving & Christmas — called before kickoff
Operations
100%
Every snapshot on time, zero missed locks since go-live