LONGSHOT LEDGER
Circa Survivor · 2026 · Private
Updated Sat, Sep 12 · 8:12 AM PT
Week 1 · Locks Saturday, Sep 12
Five entries. Twenty weeks. Every prediction graded in public.
One team to win outright each week, each team usable once, ties lose. A 25,017-entry, $25,017,000 winner-take-most pool — and a model that published its season targets before kickoff. This page is the running scoreboard of how those predictions hold up.
5 / 5
Our entries alive
25,017
Entries in the field
$25.0M
Prize pool
0%
Chance of a quiet season — massacre weeks are coming
This week
Week 1 — picks shown before Saturday's
lock. Spectators only, play nice.
The field walks into a crowded trade
About 38% of the field is projected on the Chargers at home against the Cardinals, 81% favorites. That's a strong pick with a very crowded exit.
Our five entries split across four doors: Jaguars ×2, Lions, Eagles, Steelers. Eagles is the leverage play — only 4% of the field is there, so a win buys real separation from the crowd.
Pre-registered prediction №1: 37.9% of the field picks the Chargers this week. Graded the moment Circa publishes the official Week 1 pick report.
Where the field is going
Model-projected share of all 25,017 entries, week 1
Our picks
Rest
of the field
LAC37.9%
JAXOURS ×2
32.7%
DETOURS
7.4%
PITOURS
5.3%
PHIOURS
3.9%
CIN3.6%
SEA2.1%
Our entries
Four run by the model. One decided by the group chat —
same scoreboard, no mercy.
DOC BROWN 1
Week pickDET · 75% to win
DET · 75% to winTeams burned: none yet
DOC BROWN 2
Week pickJAX · 79% to win
JAX · 79% to winTeams burned: none yet
DOC BROWN 3
Week pickJAX · 79% to win
JAX · 79% to winTeams burned: none yet
DOC BROWN 4
Week pickPHI · 70% to win
PHI · 70% to winTeams burned: none yet
MCMAHON & RODGERS
Week pickPIT · 70% to win
PIT · 70% to winTeams burned: none yet
Season outlook
What the simulator sees from here — thousands of
full-season runs, refreshed three times a week.
How this likely ends
~5 entries
out of 25,017 are expected to split the pot when the music stops. That's the game: outlast 25,012 strangers.
Model average across simulated seasons; the swing is enormous by design.
Danger weeks, called in advance
Where the model says the field gets hurt —
judge us on these in December
WEEK 5
The Patriots trap. The model projects 58% of the surviving field onto one team — with a 20% chance that team loses. That's how thousands of entries die in one afternoon.
THANKSGIVING
Short menu, forced hands. A restricted holiday slate with everyone's best teams already spent; the model has 20% of the field massing on the Lions. First of two holiday choke points.
CHRISTMAS
The season's biggest crash risk. By Christmas the menus are thin — 35% of the field funnels onto the Bears, and the model gives that favorite a 48% chance of losing. A coin flip carrying a huge slice of the pool.
The machine's record
The scorecard we asked to be judged on — four targets,
pre-registered before leg 1, graded all season even after our entries die.
Crowd prediction error
Awaiting wk 1
Target: ≤ 2.65% avg. miss on where the field's picks land
Our survival vs the field
Awaiting wk 1
Target: beat the field's average survival rate, cumulatively
Danger weeks called
3 flagged
Week 5, Thanksgiving & Christmas — called before kickoff
Operations
100%
Every snapshot on time, zero missed locks since go-live